NATO allies oppose US peace deal for Ukraine as FCAS falters: 2025 review
Russia’s war in Ukraine rumbled on in 2025, defining Europe’s defense and security landscape for a third successive year.
A breakthrough remains elusive despite US President Donald Trump’s attempts to broker a peace deal. In February, a combative meeting at the White House between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked a low point in relations between the two leaders as Trump accused his guest of “gambling with World War III.”
Turning his attention to Europe more broadly, Trum put pressure on NATO allies to bolster their own security by increasing defense spending. The move ultimately convinced the transatlantic alliance’s members — excluding Spain — to pledge 5 percent of each country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for defense, split between spending 3.5 percent on “core” defense items and an additional 1.5 percent on security investments like infrastructure. For its part, the European Union significantly moved the needle with its own $843 billion rearmament package.
[This article is one of many in a series in which Breaking Defense reporters look back on the most significant (and entertaining) news stories of 2025 and look forward to what 2026 may hold.]
Throughout the year, spikes in national defense budgets — particularly across the Baltics and the Nordic region — offered industry a fresh windfall of cash for new and existing programs. Several Russian drone incursions into European airspace also prompted an EU plan to deliver a so-called “drone wall,” loosely based around a multi-layered air defense network, to secure the skies.
Elsewhere, one high-profile aviation project’s troubles captured the media’s attention this year, while false rumblings of a “kill switch” on the world’s best-known stealth fighter forced the US to assuage its foreign partners’ concerns. Without further suspense or delay, here is my pick of the top 5 European defense stories from 2025:
1. Euro defense leaders rail against Ukraine ‘peace plan,’ lawmakers say it didn’t come from US
In November, various European defense leaders and US lawmakers scoffed at a 28-point peace plan that emerged after negotiations between Washington and Moscow, as it became clear that the deal favored Russia. Gen. Onno Eichelsheim, the Netherlands’ top general, also criticized negotiations that sought an end to the war without the input of Ukraine or European countries.
“Russia can stop this immediately. They are the aggressor,” he told Moscow. “So stop it. Withdraw. And, you have your peace.”
2. FCAS drama: ‘Difficulties’ between Airbus and Dassault again hit sixth-gen fighter effort
The troubles of France, Germany and Spain’s next-generation fighter program, known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), were on full display this year as a power struggle between French firm Dassault and Airbus took center stage. At the heart of the dispute is a demand from Dassault CEO Eric Trappier for the company to have greater control of designing the New Generation Fighter (NGF), the sixth-generation jet intended to replace Eurofighter Typhoon and Rafale fighter jets. At the Paris Air Show in June, the disagreement between the two industrial heavyweights over how to amicably move forward with technology development played out publicly.
“Clearly, we have observed with this [1B] phase, difficulties in the execution,” Jean-Brice Dumont, head of air power at Airbus Defense and Space, told reporters in Le Bourget.
3. NATO allies, besides Spain, set to make 5 percent GDP spending pledge
“This is a quantum leap that is ambitious, historic and fundamental to securing our future.” So said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte as allies prepared to sign off on a new 5 percent of GDP spending plan at the The Hague in June. Despite the alliance’s best efforts, it could not convince Spain to commit to the agreement. In October, Trump castigated Spain for miserly defense spending, going so far as to suggest throwing it out of NATO.
4. No, there’s no ‘kill switch’: Pentagon tries to reassure international F-35 partners
Lockheed Martin’s fifth-generation F-35 fighter jet dominates the European market. But in March, the Pentagon was forced to clarify that there is no “kill switch” that could effectively shut down the aircraft’s weapon and communication systems. After Trump paused military aid to Ukraine, some in Europe worried the US could stop providing software updates and logistics support to foreign F-35 customers and weaken NATO forces if Russia looks to expand its campaign across the continent.
More broadly, Europe’s F-35 customer base does not appear negatively affected by the uncertainty brought on by the Trump administration’s hardline stance toward Europe. Though Spain has ruled out an order and Switzerland is moving forward with a smaller-than-expected buy, Denmark has said it will purchase an additional 16 aircraft.
5. After soldier sickness, UK procurement minister to launch review into Ajax advice
The UK’s long-delayed Ajax armored fighting vehicle program once again met controversy after it emerged in November that around 30 soldiers fell sick after riding in the vehicles. The illness was linked to excessive noise and vibration, a matter of weeks after the UK government declared initial operating capability. The milestone was approved by Luke Pollard, the British minister for defense readiness and industry, after he was assured by MoD senior officials — including head of the British Army Roly Walker — that Ajax was “demonstrably safe to operate.”
Earlier this month, Tan Dhesi, chair of the UK defense committee, heavily criticized developments.
“What an absolute shambles,” he told lawmakers. “[Pollard] should be livid at how things have transpired, given the billions of pounds of British taxpayers’ money that has been spent over the years on the Ajax programme and the injuries sustained” by the Ajax crew.
The vehicle is planned to be a core part of the British Army’s armored and deep reconnaissance strike brigades, but it remains to be seen if the program will survive the latest debacle.
